• 0 Posts
  • 16 Comments
Joined 10 months ago
Cake day: December 22nd, 2024
  • GreenShimada@lemmy.worldtoProgrammer Humor@programming.dev•This isn't a bubble
    1·
    3 days ago

    That’s the bet-swap. They have both have a contractual obligation to exchange investments in each other. It’s a suicide pact OR it’s a bromance glow-up, depending on your point of view. AMD is giving them chips on the (accurate so far) bet that buying chips will inflate AMD’s stock value.

    Again, this is not a thing a rational person would do because it’s both not sustainable and not realistic unless you expect the value of everything to got up for 10+ years. It’s a recursive bet on a bet on a bet. It’s like buying T-bills.

  • GreenShimada@lemmy.worldtoProgrammer Humor@programming.dev•This isn't a bubble
    21·
    4 days ago

    The issue here is this isn’t debt!

    Debt would be SoftBank giving OpenAI $78 B in cash and then in a year or two asking for payments of cash back.

    This investment/stock circular thing is like if you were building a house and lived next to a brick yard, and convinced the brick yard owner to give you bricks to build your house. Your house would be the demonstration of how lovely the bricks are, and in return you’ll give them 10% of the title of your property. If you sell that property in 2009 or 2024, the value will change, but that’s a risk and gamble you both take. And they can sell small parts of that 10% whenever they want, if they want.

    None of that is debt. Debt would be a loan from the bank that requires payments over time.

  • GreenShimada@lemmy.worldtoProgrammer Humor@programming.dev•This isn't a bubble
    51·
    4 days ago

    Someone somewhere took debt

    the simple answer is that the people buying AMD stock are the ones paying for those chips

    In my eyes this deal is a speculative investment leveraging debt.

    But so you have to pick one. Unless you’re suggesting that all the day traders and retirement funds and investment funds are buying or already holding AMD bought it all with credit cards. Which is not the case, which is why this isn’t debt.

    Ask yourself - If it’s debt, then who is the creditor? Who holds the loan paperwork? What rate did they get? What’s the collateral? None of those things are true here.

    Stock value isn’t real any more than the value of gold or silver or bitcoin, but it’s all relative to the value of the stock when sold. But it being sold is the point. The stocks are worth money. Real actual money. If the market hits a correction - as other more bubble-like parts of the AI industry and the current general economic shitpile are likely to afford us all in the next few years - then OpenAI and NVIDIA and AMD won’t be carved up and sold for parts after a bankruptcy by a bank because they’re still able to sell the stocks to fund payroll. As long as no one sells off a ton of stock quickly and the stock value doesn’t collapse, then it’s simply a risky circular a bet on themselves.

    Don’t get me wrong, I think this is an innovation in stupidity and shortsightedness. But call it what it is, which is not debt.

  • GreenShimada@lemmy.worldtoProgrammer Humor@programming.dev•This isn't a bubble
    223·
    4 days ago

    This isn’t the way economic bubbles are typically structured. At all.

    Typical economic bubbles are built on speculative investment leveraging debt until the whole thing reaches a point where the debt can’t realistically account for possible growth anymore. This would be OpenAI asking SoftBank for $78B to buy chips that have at most, a maximal 5 year life cycle, and then OpenAI not having cash on hand to pay down that $78B in 2 years.

    Using this stock reacharound is actual money changing hands. Yes, stock dividends and sales are part of that, but it’s not debt. It’s certainly not sustainable, but it’s not something that will lead to bankruptcy for OpenAI or NVIDIA or AMD if they fail to turn profits. But the money is real at the time it’s moved around. Surprisingly, the LLM crowd has been fairly consistent in not running to highly leveraged debt for funding.

    This is a pump and dump scheme if anything, and seems like a great way to find out later that people buying stock in AMD “invested” in shrinking their portfolio over the long term. IMO only a fool would buy stocks that funded this, but it’s a slow-mo bubble for those people, not the economy in general.

  • GreenShimada@lemmy.worldtoLinux@lemmy.ml•Linux phones are more important now than ever
    1·
    1 month ago

    That’s what Google wants, because people gave up on Jailbreaking iPhones because the loss of features wasn’t worth it on the other side. Google probably doesn’t love that their flagship is the best model for use with custom ROMs, plus they’re also trying to lock out Xiomi as well for what that’s worth.

    While giving up is an option, someone somewhere needs to coordinate this entire OSS ecosystem to focus on singular projects. I would love to see a privacy and FOSS non-profit do exactly this.

  • GreenShimada@lemmy.worldtoLinux@lemmy.ml•The state of Linux phones in 2025
    6·
    1 month ago

    When customs ROMs and most FOSS apps are killed next year on Android, we’re all going to find out very quickly how much the trap has closed around us.

    Same reason I loved to Linux on desktop, something that used to be cool and open and at least work mostly has enshittified beyond repair. I’m not going to let the bastards get me if I can help it.

  • GreenShimada@lemmy.worldtoProgrammer Humor@programming.dev•The vibecoders are becoming sentient
    14·
    2 months ago

    That comes up in that sub occasionally and people offer it as a service. It’s 2 different universes in there - people who are like giving a child a Harry Potter toy wand that think they’re magic, and then a stage magician with 20 years of experience doing up close slight-of-hand magic that takes work to learn, telling the kid “you’re not doing what you think you’re doing here” and then the kid starts to cry and their friends come over and try to berate the stage magician and shout that he’s wrong because Hagrid said Harry’s a wizard and if you have the plastic wand that goes “bbbring!” you’re Harry Potter.